On the first, I posted some unfounded rumors about QuickTime updates during MacWorld. As promised, now that the keynote is over I’ll analyze how accurate my predictions are. (Since I’m trying to build a good track record, I will conveniently itemize those predictions in such a way that it looks like I did better than I really did.)

1. New version of QuickTime
   Yes! After the keynote, QuickTime 7.4 was released via Software Update.
2. Free QuickTime Pro
   No! The Apple Store still lists the upgrade at $29.99.
3. Free MPEG-2 Component
   No! It retains a $19.99 price tag.
4. VC-1 Support
   Sort of! While QuickTime itself did not gain VC-1, this was apparently introduced in the Leopard DVDPlayback framework. Run strings -3 /System/Library/Frameworks/DVDPlayback.framework/DVDPlayback | grep “VC1″ for some evidence of this.
5. Acquisition of Telestream
   No! Well, at least there have been no announcements of this nature.
6. 64-bit Compatible QuickTime APIs
   Sort of! Apparently I need to brush up on my QuickTime APIs. Apple has been doing this with QTKit, which offers 64-bit wrappers to 32-bit QuickTime functions. I’ll count this one against me for ignorance.
7. 64-bit QuickTime for Windows
   Yes! iTunes 7.6 now supports Windows Vista 64-bit, according to the requirements, and properly supports syncing with iPhones.
8. Keynote’s Overall Digital Media Theme
   Yes! The MacBook Air, AppleTV updates, and iTMS movie rentals were all part of this theme.

So there we have it! I got 3.5/8 predictions correct which gives me a higher prediction accuracy than ThinkSecret will have all year.

Well, it’s finally January 1st, a day that I celebrate by writing the date wrong, a sacred tradition that lasts through mid-July. Today also means that my birthday is just around the corner, and friend of the family Steve Jobs is out picking a present for me.

Two years ago, he announced the first Intel-based MacBook Pro and iMac; for my eighteenth birthday, he unveiled the Apple TV and a lesser-known handheld device called the iPhone. So what does Uncle Steve have in store for me this year?

The rumor sites are forecasting the usual design refreshes and new products and services (Apple phone, touchscreen iPod, Newton rebirth, ultra-portable laptop, …). I’m not in-the-know, so I can’t make any authoritative comments on these things, but I certainly won’t pass up the fun of generating new baseless rumors in authoritative tone:

Apple will be releasing an update to QuickTime Player which will deliver numerous new features. To start, Apple will remove the license fee for Pro (on Mac, at least). This comes after we saw fullscreen mode lose its Pro status in July, while other Pro-only features have shown up iLife and other free programs (see Siracusa’s rant circa 2005). The MPEG-2 Playback component will also become free, and will be included as part of the main QuickTime package.

Moving on to more important matters, Jobs will announce support for a new codec: VC-1, a standard of both Blu-ray, which Apple has backed since 2005, as well as rival HD-DVD; if Macs are to be equipped with either flavor come the 15th, VC-1 is a necessity. To this end, Apple may announce the acquisition of Telestream, which authors the Flip4Mac WMV playback suite. Historically, Apple revealed its Pixlet codec at WWDC 2003, and showed off H.264 support at NAB 2004.

While it may not be announced at MacWorld, developers will be happy to see the QuickTime APIs become fully 64-bit compatible, with a large number of functions becoming deprecated in favor of more modern Core Video equivalents. This will serve as a segue into more enhancements as LLVM (another Siracusa hat tip) allows playback to be more finely tuned to the OS and hardware. It remains to be seen how Windows will be treated; 64-bit users have long suffered without compatible versions of QuickTime and iTunes, but the API changes will push the Mac and Windows branches further apart in terms of functionality.

The changes to QuickTime will be part of the keynote’s overall digital media theme, although it will inevitably be a minor player as movie rentals, iTunes’ expanded DRM-free offerings, and others take center stage.

2003 was “the year of the notebook,” 2005 was “the year of high definition video,” 2007 was “one of the most exciting new product years in Apple’s history.” Based on this trend, I can safely conclude that 2008 won’t be the year of anything, but 2009 should be a real blast.

I’ll see you in the near future when I reveal disturbing facts about cell phone text messaging. Be sure to tune your feed reader to my frequency to get up-to-the-minute updates.